By Rlogy | 8 June 2025

After months of tariff-fueled disruptions, U.S. retailers are finally seeing a break in the clouds — though not necessarily a clearing sky.

According to the latest Global Port Tracker report by the National Retail Federation (NRF), import cargo at U.S. ports is expected to surge in the coming months, spurred by a 90-day truce in the U.S.–China tariff standoff. But while this short-term relief has kickstarted a wave of import activity — particularly for the back-to-school and winter holiday seasons — the long-term outlook remains weighed down by economic uncertainty and the looming return of higher tariffs.

The Summer Surge: A Race Against the Clock

Retailers are moving fast to take advantage of the temporary drop in tariffs on Chinese goods — from a steep 145% to a more manageable 30%. For many, this window represents an opportunity to replenish inventories, hedge against future price hikes, and prepare for key retail periods.

“This isn’t just a seasonal uptick — it’s a calculated rush,” said one logistics analyst. “Retailers are pulling forward shipments to beat the tariff clock.”

April’s port activity showed signs of early momentum, with U.S. ports handling 2.21 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) — up 2.9% from March and 9.6% year-over-year.

But May painted a very different picture, largely reflecting earlier hesitations from importers. Ports processed only 1.91 million TEUs, a steep 13.4% drop from April and down 8.1% from May 2024. This marked the first annual decline since September 2023 and the lowest monthly volume since December 2023.

Rebound in Motion — But Not Without Trade-offs

The tide is expected to turn again starting June, as importers flood the ports during the tariff pause. However, year-over-year comparisons will remain negative due to last year’s elevated volumes and ongoing trade friction.

• June: Projected at 2.01 million TEUs, down 6.2% YoY
  
  
• July: Projected at 2.13 million TEUs, down 8.1% YoY
  
  
• August: Projected at 1.98 million TEUs, down 14.7% YoY
  
  

The compression of the back-to-school and holiday import seasons — typically staggered — is creating unusual peak traffic patterns at ports. NRF notes this “early convergence” underscores just how sensitive supply chains have become to geopolitical policies.

The Road Ahead: Tougher Waters After the Truce

The outlook dims significantly beyond the summer window. Unless additional tariff relief is announced, imports are expected to decline sharply in the fall — a season retailers typically count on.

• September: Forecasted at 1.78 million TEUs, down 21.8% YoY
  
  
• October: Forecasted at 1.80 million TEUs, down 19.8% YoY
  
  

These drops reflect both the earlier pull-forward strategy and a high baseline from late 2024, when concerns over East and Gulf Coast labor strikes pushed retailers to front-load shipments.

Halfway Check: Growth, But With Caveats

For the first half of 2025, total imports are expected to reach 12.54 million TEUs, a modest 3.7% increase YoY. While this figure is higher than earlier projections, it remains below the bullish estimates made before the April tariff escalation.

Bottom Line 

Retailers are sprinting through a narrow opening — leveraging the tariff pause to secure goods and stabilize inventories. But this race against policy, not just time, speaks volumes about the fragility of global trade in the face of uncertainty.

The key question now is not whether imports will rise this summer — they will — but whether they’ll sustain beyond the 90-day ceasefire. For ports, retailers, and logistics providers, it’s not just about managing volume — it’s about navigating volatility.