A Trump Victory Could Spell Positive Outcomes for Asia and Maritime Trade

By Rlogy | Jan 28 2025

While Trump presidency might spell trouble for the UK and Europe, it could bring significant benefits to Asia and the shipping industry.

LATROBE, PENNSYLVANIA – OCTOBER 19: Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump, wears a hard hat given to him by steelworkers and stands with United Steel Workers local 1557 Vice President Richard Tikey during a campaign rally on October 19, 2024, in Latrobe, Pennsylvania. There are 17 days remaining until the U.S. presidential election, which will take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)

A Businessman’s Approach

At his core, President Trump is a businessman, and his actions in the White House reflect this mindset. Unlike traditional politicians, Trump prioritizes immediate gains over historical ties or long-term commitments. This approach could be detrimental to the UK and Europe, which rely heavily on historical alliances and long-term strategies. However, for Asia, this short-term, business-focused mindset could be advantageous.

Trade Dynamics

Trump’s presidency is likely to focus on creating a level playing field for American businesses, particularly in trade with Asia. Despite imposing tariffs on Chinese goods during his previous term, the volume of trade between the US and Asia remained robust. This indicates that Trump’s policies might not negatively impact Asian exports to the US. Moreover, Asia offers a vast market for American goods and services, which Trump cannot afford to ignore.

Challenges for Europe

Europe faces several challenges that make it less likely to benefit from a Trump presidency. Declining populations, immigration issues, and rigid policies on climate change are at odds with Trump’s priorities. Additionally, internal dissent within the European Union and the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict further weaken Europe’s negotiating position. In contrast, Asia’s diverse and growing intra-regional trade, along with strong alliances like BRICS+ and ASEAN, put it in a stronger position.

Volatile but Promising Trade Flows

Trump’s policies are expected to lead to dynamic and volatile trade flows. Increased fossil fuel production in the US and renegotiated trade deals could boost coal and oil exports to Asia. Investments from American tycoons like Elon Musk could also accelerate economic growth in both regions. While Trump’s rhetoric on tariffs might seem threatening, it could serve as a negotiation tool to achieve mutually beneficial trade agreements with Asia.

Conclusion

A second term for Donald Trump could bring volatility to the shipping industry, but it might not be all bad news. If Asia and the US can strike favorable deals, it could lead to longer shipping routes and increased trade volumes. While Europe might struggle under Trump’s policies, Asia stands to gain from his business-centric approach.